Colorado-Real-Estate-Journal_510970

Page 14 — Retail Properties Quarterly — February 2026 www.crej.com S hoplifting and organized retail crime have quietly reshaped the economics of doing business in Colorado. What may seem like iso- lated acts of theft now function as a structural drag on the state’s econo- my. They raise costs for businesses, consumers, workers and local gov- ernments alike. Colorado is in the midst of a noticeable shift in public safety. According to the Common Sense Institute, the statewide crime rate rose 26% between 2011 and 2023. Retail theft has worsened alongside that trend, accelerating sharply over the past year. In 2024 alone, law enforcement recorded 27,094 shop- lifting incidents, a 22.4% increase from 2023 and nearly 10% higher than a decade ago. Even those numbers understate the problem. Retail theft is one of the least reported crimes. National surveys show roughly 89% of inci- dents go unreported. Adjusting for that gap suggests the true state- wide total is closer to 246,000 theft events annually. The losses are staggering. Colo- rado retailers lost an estimated $1.3 billion worth of merchandise to theft last year. These aren’t abstract accounting write-offs. They trans- late directly into fewer jobs, lower investment, and higher prices for families. Economic modeling from CSI shows that sustained losses at this level could cost Colorado roughly 8,485 jobs by 2026 and reduce state- wide gross domestic product by nearly $300 million per year between 2026 and 2030. Retail theft is no longer just a store- level nuisance, but a measurable eco- nomic headwind. Unlike many other crimes, retail theft also hits pub- lic finances direct- ly. Stolen goods are never sold, mean- ing the state loses taxable transac- tions. Colorado for- feited an estimat- ed $37.4 million in sales tax revenue from stolen mer- chandise in 2024, plus another $40.6 million from fraudulent returns and retail scams. Together, that amounts to a $78 million annual shortfall – money that would otherwise fund schools, roads and public safety. The problem is highly concen- trated. Ten of Colorado’s 64 counties account for nearly 85% of reported incidents. Adams, Jefferson, El Paso and Denver counties alone make up more than 60% of statewide thefts, reflecting the dense retail corridors and transportation networks along the Front Range. But the footprint is spreading. Historically lower-theft counties such as Boulder and Otero entered the top 10 for the first time in 2024, suggesting the issue is radi- ating outward from urban centers. Policy changes over the past decade may have unintention- ally contributed. In 2013, Colorado raised the felony theft threshold from $1,000 to $2,000 and reduced penalties for lower-value offenses. In practice, an organized thief can now steal twice as much merchan- dise before facing felony charges. Today, Colorado’s $2,000 threshold is among the highest in the coun- try; the national average is closer to $1,100. That difference matters. Research from the University of Colorado finds that higher felony thresholds are associated with higher theft rates. States that raise thresholds experience roughly a 4% increase in theft each time the bar moves upward. When penalties fail to reflect real-world harms, the cost- benefit calculation tilts in favor of crime. Not all retail theft is the same. Some incidents involve opportunis- tic shoplifting for personal use. A growing share, however, is organized retail crime: coordi- nated groups stealing mid-value goods that are easy to resell online or across state lines. Most theft involves merchandise priced between $100 and $299, precisely the sweet spot for resale markets. A smaller but significant share exceeds $1,000 yet still falls short of Colorado’s felony threshold. No single reform will solve the problem, but targeted steps could meaningfully reduce it. First, Colorado should lower the felony threshold to $1,000 to align with national norms and restore consequences for higher-value theft. This alone would disrupt organized theft rings that currently operate just under the $2,000 ceil- ing. Second, lawmakers should modernize theft statutes to bet- ter address repeat offenders and organized retail crime specifically, including enhanced penalties for coordinated operations and chronic offenders. Third, the state needs better data. Colorado struggles to distinguish organized retail crime from oppor- tunistic shoplifting. Creating a stat- utory category for organized retail crime would improve tracking and enable more precise enforcement. Finally, stronger collaboration between retailers and law enforce- ment is essential. Retail theft is concentrated, predictable, and increasingly coordinated. Regional intelligence-sharing, consistent reporting, and public-private part- nerships would make it far easier to disrupt organized networks before losses compound. Retail theft has already begun reshaping Colorado’s economy. Left unchecked, it will mean fewer local businesses, higher prices for families, weaker tax revenues, and slower growth year after year. This is not merely a nuisance or a victimless crime. It is an eco- nomic issue, a public safety issue and a policy issue. Colorado can either adapt with practical reforms or continue absorbing the costs. The choice will determine whether retail theft remains a growing state- wide crisis or becomes a solvable problem. s The costs & fixes for Colorado’s theft problem Mitch Morrissey Former Denver district attorney and current Owens Early Criminal Justice Fellow for the Common Sense Institute